Moore, Metcalfe, and Disruptive Technology

Context matters. The context for developing software products is a hyper-accelerated society. Technology advances at an ever accelerating rate and business is a direct beneficiary, and sometimes casualty.  The world has seen more technological innovations in the past 50 years than in all the years of previous human history combined. And there is no sign that the rate of change is letting up. In my lifetime, I’ve watched our society embrace and adopt the following significant new technologies in an increasing accelerated pace:

    • Tablet Computers: 3.5 years to adoption by ¼ of U.S. population
    •  
    • The Internet Browser: 7 years to adoption by ¼ of U.S. population

 

  • Cellular Telephones: 14 years to adoption by ¼ of U.S. population
  • Personal Computers: 16 years to adoption by ¼ of U.S. population

Do you see the trend? It is important to understand the context of the society we find ourselves in, an accelerated society. The following three principles help capture the this context:

  • Moore’s Law
  • Metcalfe’s Useful Equation
  • Disruptive vs. Sustaining Technology

I will post on them separately, or if you are impatient you can Google them yourself. If you are going to do agile development, these are worth studying and understanding.